U.S. Inflation Expected to Worsen, Iran Conflict Prices May Decline in Summer

The expectation of worsening U.S. inflation could bolster expectations of rate hikes, supporting the DXY. A decline in Iranian war‑related prices during the summer could pull oil prices lower, potentially weakening the dollar. Technical indicators show a weak short‑term trend due to a 24‑hour decline and the SMA20 being slightly below the SMA50. However, macro data suggest the dollar may experience a modest rebound in the short term. Over a 1‑3 day horizon, a slight upward trend in the dollar is expected.

A short-term decline can be expected in the USDTRY pair. The RSI14 indicator is at 58 and is not in an upward trend. Additionally, the expectation that Iran War premiums will decrease in the summer, as mentioned in news headlines, could negatively impact oil prices and cause the dollar to depreciate against the TRY. However, since this expectation has not yet materialized, the confidence level is set at 0.6.

The news headline highlights inflation pressure and geopolitical risks, which are generally supportive for gold. However, technical indicators present a mixed picture: the RSI is in neutral territory, the MACD is below the signal line, and the price is above short-term averages but saw a decline in the latest close. In the short term, there may be a tug-of-war between the impact of the news and technical factors, making it difficult to determine a clear direction.

Technical indicators already support the downward trend; the price is below key moving averages and the RSI is near the oversold zone but is not yet signaling a bottom. The news headline could increase selling pressure in the short term due to uncertainty regarding inflation concerns and the potential impact of an Iran war. However, as the RSI level indicates oversold conditions, the depth of the decline may be limited, and the possibility of consolidation or a slight recovery also exists.