Warsh: Fed Forecasts Expected to Persist Longer Than Anticipated

Fed’s long‑term expectations could introduce uncertainty in the markets, yet GOOGL’s technical indicators—bullish MACD, RSI at a moderate level, and price trading above both the SMA20 and SMA50—indicate a short‑term supported stance. Over the next one to three days, the stock is likely to experience a modest upward move or remain stable. The negative impact of the Fed news may be limited in the short term. Consequently, I view the direction as neutral rather than a clear upward trend.

The Federal Reserve’s longer‑than‑expected tightening stance is fostering a supportive backdrop for the U.S. dollar index (DXY). Technical indicators also signal an uptrend: the RSI sits at 63, the MACD is above its signal line, and the 20‑period simple moving average (SMA20) is above the 50‑period SMA (SMA50). A modest rise can be anticipated within the next one to three days, though caution is advised to avoid overreaction.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for longer than anticipated could strengthen the US dollar. In the short term, upward pressure on USDJPY may increase. Indicators such as RSI and MACD also support the upward trend. However, due to market volatility, certainty remains low.

Although the USDTRY's RSI at 73.8 is approaching overbought territory, the MACD remains above its signal line and in positive territory, preserving short-term bullish momentum. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming an upward trend. News headlines suggesting the Fed may delay rate cuts could put pressure on emerging market currencies, potentially supporting the USDTRY's upward bias. However, the overbought signal introduces a risk of a short-term correction.