Strait of Hormuz Closure Reduces Risk Appetite in Global Markets

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting oil supply, creating an upward trend in prices. Major oil companies like CVX could directly benefit from rising prices. Technical indicators also signal a bullish trend: the price is above SMA20 and SMA50, MACD is above the signal line, and RSI is around 59, not yet in overbought territory. In the short term (1-3 days), the price is expected to continue a slight upward trend, but volatility may increase due to general risk aversion.

The closing of the Hürmüz Strait has reduced risk appetite, fostering a broad risk‑off sentiment across markets. This environment may exert short‑term selling pressure, particularly on equities. BP’s current technical indicators—RSI at 58, a positive MACD, and a price positioned above both the 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages—support a short‑term bullish trend. Consequently, the risk‑off effect could pull the price slightly lower, but the technical signals may constrain the decline. In the near term, establishing a clear direction is challenging; the price is expected to oscillate within the 46.15‑46.35 range.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates a serious risk of oil supply disruption, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure on energy stocks. With OXY's RSI at 74, indicating overbought conditions, a technical correction is highly probable. Although the MACD remains bullish, the uncertainty stemming from the news may weaken momentum. The recent 5.5% rally at the last close has set the stage for profit-taking. While a short-term bearish trend is expected, it should be noted that geopolitical developments can change rapidly.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious risk of oil supply disruption, potentially driving Brent prices higher. Technical indicators support this upward trend, with the RSI at 64 in strong territory, the MACD above its signal line, and prices well above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 2% increase in the last 24 hours suggests that the impact of the news is beginning to be reflected in prices. However, the possibility of a limited rally remains due to the RSI approaching overbought levels and the potential for geopolitical risks to quickly recede.