US Treasury Yields Rise, Dollar Holds Steady as Strait Stalemate Persists

Rising U.S. Treasury yields typically support the dollar, but the news reports that the dollar remains unchanged while the Strait of Hormuz stoppage continues, which could push oil prices higher and weaken the dollar. Technical indicators also show a slight downward trend, with the SMA20 below the SMA50 and the MACD near negative. Therefore, in the short term, the direction of the DXY is uncertain, with a slight decline possible.

The rise in U.S. Treasury yields suggests that the dollar could receive short‑term support, yet the currency remains flat and the risk premium for a pause in the Strait is increasing. Despite a 24‑hour gain of 0.32% in USD/JPY, the RSI at 49.8 and a negative MACD indicate slight technical downward pressure. The fact that the 20‑period SMA lies below the 50‑period SMA signals a short‑term downtrend. The balance of these two factors implies that USD/JPY is likely to stay almost unchanged over a 1‑3 day horizon. Consequently, the direction is unclear, though a modest upward bias may be observed.

The increase in U.S. Treasury yields combined with a stable dollar could exert short‑term pressure on markets. Ongoing stoppages in the Bosphorus Strait may raise supply concerns and push prices higher. However, current technical indicators—RSI at 48.8, a negative MACD, and prices trading below both the 20‑period and 50‑period simple moving averages—do not yet signal a clear upward move. A modest rebound or the continuation of the existing downtrend over the next one to three days is likely.

High bond yields and a risk‑off environment, combined with weak technical signals for CVX, could keep the stock under pressure in the near term. A supply bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz and a stable dollar are likely to support oil prices, thereby protecting the company’s revenue. Consequently, no clear directional move is expected over the next 1–3 days, with a slight decline being the most probable scenario.