Semiconductor Stocks Are on a Historic 32-Year Run. Here’s What Usually Happens After a Rally Like This

NVDA shares fell 6.78% within 24 hours, trading below both the 20‑day and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMA). The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 33, just above the 30‑level, which may signal a potential exit from an oversold condition. On a macro level, the 32‑year rally in the semiconductor sector could boost market sentiment, yet current technical indicators do not provide a clear bullish signal. In the short term, the stock is likely to experience a brief recovery or consolidation phase. Consequently, the direction for a 1‑ to 3‑day move remains ambiguous; a modest upside is possible, but risk persists.

Despite a strong 10% rise in the last 24 hours, the RSI remains in the overbought region at 75.8. The MACD and signal line are positive, but the price continues to stay above the SMA20 and SMA50. Historical data indicate that after long‑term rallies, short‑term corrections or consolidations tend to occur. Therefore, a slight decline or sideways movement is expected over a 1‑3 day period. Nevertheless, with strong technical indicators, the likelihood of a sharp drop is low, although short‑term volatility may remain high.

The ASML stock has shown a 3% increase in the last 24 hours. The RSI14 value is determined as 52.22, indicating that the stock is in a neutral position in the medium term. The MACD and MACD signal lines are moving in a positive direction, but a correction may occur after the recent rally. The SMA20 and SMA50 values also continue to support the medium-term trend of the stock. However, historical data suggests that semiconductor stocks often experience a decline after a 32-year rally, leading to the possibility of a short-term downward movement for the stock.

INTC stock has surged over 18% in the last 24 hours. The RSI14 stands at 72.64, indicating high levels and approaching overbought territory. The MACD and MACD signal lines are converging, which could signal a reversal. Although the SMA20 and SMA50 support the upward trend, a correction may follow the recent rally. Therefore, a short-term decline can be expected.