Millions of Barrels Shock in the Strait of Hormuz Set to Reduce Demand

A potential supply restriction in the Strait of Hormuz could lift oil prices in the near term. BP’s oil‑production portfolio could benefit from this uptick, potentially exerting positive pressure on the share price. However, technical indicators—MACD below the signal line and an RSI of 44.6—do not currently provide a strong bullish signal. Consequently, the impact of the news may be limited, and prices could show a brief rebound. Overall, a modest upward move is expected in the short term, though risks remain.

However, technical indicators suggest a slight short‑term downward pressure, as the price is below the SMA20 and above the MACD signal. The RSI sits at 45, indicating almost neutral momentum. Consequently, the news impact may be mixed in the short run, making it difficult to determine a clear direction.

The headline points to a major oil discovery or potential supply increase in the Strait of Hormuz, which could drive prices lower amid oversupply concerns. Technically, Brent is down 1.3% at $109.77, with RSI at 54.5 in neutral territory, while MACD gives a positive signal above zero. Despite trading above short-term SMAs, the supply increase expectation from the news may amplify selling pressure. Therefore, a short-term downward move is possible, but it is too early to confirm a strong trend reversal.