US Crude Oil Surpasses $100 as Iran Tensions Close Strait of Hormuz; S&P 500 Declines

The news headline indicates that geopolitical risks are increasing and the rise in oil prices is putting pressure on the S&P 500. Although the RSI is in neutral territory at 63 in technical indicators, the MACD being above the signal line points to a short-term upward trend. However, negative news such as the sharp rise in oil prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt market sentiment. Therefore, a downward movement can be expected in the short term, but since the technical indicators are not completely weak, the confidence level is moderate.

Brent crude is showing signs of weakening in technical indicators. The RSI is approaching oversold territory at 35, while the MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory. The price is trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. Although news headlines highlight supply disruption risks such as Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the decline in the S&P 500 is reducing risk appetite. In the short term, the downtrend is expected to continue.

Although WTI crude oil briefly rose above $100, it closed at $100.48, down 4.1% in the last 24 hours. The RSI at 36.7 is approaching oversold territory, but the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory, suggesting short-term bearish momentum could persist. Trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($102.60 and $103.20, respectively) further weakens the technical outlook. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and a decline in the S&P 500 are reducing risk appetite, potentially amplifying concerns over oil demand. Therefore, the bearish trend is expected to continue in the near term.

The sharp rise in oil prices and tensions with Iran are creating a short-term positive catalyst for energy companies such as Exxon Mobil. Technical indicators also support this view: the RSI is in positive territory at 60, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, the decline in the S&P 500 could limit overall market risk appetite, and the sustainability of the oil price rally remains uncertain. Therefore, the bullish outlook can be expressed with moderate confidence.