BlackRock’s Rosenberg: Fed’s Expansionary Tilt Stalled by War

The news headline signals a negative macro outlook for the market, stating that the Fed's expansionary trend has ended with the war. Technical indicators support this view: RSI is weak at 40, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 1.33% decline in the last close indicates continued selling pressure. A short-term downtrend can be expected to persist, but caution is advised as the market has not yet entered oversold territory.

The DXY is trading at 98.08, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. The RSI at 35.6 is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory, suggesting continued short-term weakness. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (98.31 and 98.38, respectively). A news headline indicates that the Fed's expansionary stance has ended with war, signaling a dovish shift that could add further pressure on the US dollar. Therefore, a bearish trend is likely to persist in the short term.

The NDX is nearing overbought territory with an RSI of 71, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction or sideways movement. The headline suggests that the Fed's expansionary policy has ended due to the war, which could create uncertainty for the market. However, the MACD remains positive, and the price is above the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating that the uptrend has not yet been broken. In the short term, the direction is unclear due to the overbought signal and the uncertainty generated by the news, so a neutral stance is recommended.

USDJPY is trading at 156.13, losing 0.87% in the last 24 hours. The RSI at 33.3 is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating continued short-term bearish momentum. The price is trading well below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (157.35 and 157.27, respectively). BlackRock's Rosenberg's comment that the Fed's expansionary stance is at odds with the war may put pressure on the US dollar and support the decline in USDJPY. However, the RSI approaching oversold territory also raises the possibility of a short-term corrective bounce.