Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Aviation Dynamics: Bankruptcy Fears in Europe, Opportunity Period in Turkey

The headline indicates that the Hormuz crisis, while negatively impacting European aviation, has created an opportunity for Turkey. This situation could serve as a short-term positive catalyst for Turkish airline stocks such as THYAO. Technical indicators support this view: the RSI at 55.6 is in neutral territory but trending upward, the MACD is above its signal line and positive, and the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The last closing price of 309.75 TL showed a daily increase of 2.2%. However, due to the uncertainties of the crisis and general market risks, I refrain from giving high confidence.

The headline indicates that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is negatively impacting European aviation while creating an opportunity for Turkey. PGSUS shares rose 3.13% in the last close, with an RSI of 57.7, placing it in a neutral-to-slightly-buy zone. The MACD is above the signal line and positive, suggesting short-term upward momentum. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which is technically supportive. However, the impact of the news may not yet be fully priced in, and volatility could increase depending on the duration of the crisis.

Brent crude oil has declined 7.7% over the past 24 hours, falling to $101.65. Although the RSI at 35.8 approaches oversold territory, the MACD remains below its signal line and in negative territory. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term weakness. While news headlines emphasize geopolitical risks, the market currently appears more focused on demand-side negatives rather than supply disruption concerns. The deterioration in technical indicators and the sharp decline suggest that downward pressure may persist in the near term.

WTI crude oil declined 6.8% over the past 24 hours to $95.14. The RSI at 40.46 is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative below the signal line. Trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages confirms short-term pressure. Although headlines point to geopolitical risk, the market currently appears more focused on demand slowdown than supply concerns. The likelihood of a continued downtrend in the near term is high.