ECB to Hold Interest Rates Steady While Assessing Iran War Impact

EURUSD is trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term uptrend. The RSI stands at 54.6, in neutral territory, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting weakening momentum. The ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and may not trigger a surprise effect. However, the risk of conflict with Iran introduces uncertainty, potentially capping upside movement.

The EUR/TRY pair could follow a sideways trajectory in the short term. The RSI at 54.6 is in neutral territory, while the MACD remains slightly below its signal line, indicating weakening momentum. Although the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and geopolitical uncertainties (impact of the Iran conflict) may put pressure on the Turkish lira. However, the current technical structure and limited price movement make it difficult to determine a clear direction. Therefore, sideways movement within a range is expected in the near term.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 98.055, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. The RSI at 46.37 indicates weakness below the neutral zone, while the MACD line remains below the signal line in negative territory. The price has fallen below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supporting a short-term bearish trend. The European Central Bank's decision to hold interest rates steady could support the euro, exerting downward pressure on the DXY. However, selling momentum is limited, so a strong sell-off is not expected.

The DAX index has risen 2.8% in the last 24 hours, demonstrating strong short-term momentum. The RSI at 68.5 is approaching overbought territory but is not yet at dangerous levels. The MACD is above the signal line and in positive territory, indicating the uptrend continues. However, the ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the process of assessing the impact of the Iran war create uncertainty. Short-term upside potential may be limited as the market could begin to price in this geopolitical risk.