Hormuz Strait Fertilizer Crisis Threatens 10 Billion Tonnes per Week

The disruption of fertilizer trade through the Hormuz Strait, caused by fighting in Iran, poses a serious threat to global food production. According to United Nations data, roughly one‑third of world fertilizer trade normally passes through the strait; since the outbreak of hostilities, fertilizer prices have risen by 80 %. This price surge is complicating farmers’ production decisions and tightening food supply. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of leading fertilizer producer Yara International, warned that supply interruptions could cost up to 10 billion tonnes of fertilizer per week. He highlighted that conflicts in the Gulf of Basra are disrupting shipments and endangering the global agricultural supply chain. Holsether noted that about 500,000 tonnes of nitrogen‑based fertilizer production have already halted, and a decline in fertilizer use could reduce yields by up to 50 % in some crops during the first season. The impact is expected to be most severe in Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. While affluent regions such as Europe may still access food despite higher prices, the situation is creating a global “food competition.” Holsether cautioned that the greatest cost will fall on low‑income countries, stating, “Rich countries can buy food, but the poor cannot compete in the same race.” In the United Kingdom, food inflation is projected to reach 10 % by year‑end, and rising energy and production costs are further pressuring farmers. Şemsi Bayraktar, President of the Turkish Agricultural Chambers Union (TZOB), reported that in April, 40 grocery items saw price increases while 12 saw decreases. He added, “The product with the highest price rise in April was green onion, up 48.7 %. It was followed by spinach (29.9 %), dried onion (29.2 %), chickpeas (7.6 %) and olive oil (7.5 %). The product with the largest price drop was eggplant, falling 74.3 %.” Experts say the effects will not immediately appear on shelves but will worsen during the harvest season. A production shortfall could arise for staple foods such as rice. The World Food Programme forecasts that the Middle East crisis could leave an additional 45 million people facing acute hunger by 2026. This is not investment advice.