Minister Bolat: Export Record Broken in April

The USDTRY pair maintains its upward trend in the short term. The RSI at 58 is in the buying zone, and the MACD is trading positively above the signal line. The price is trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. Although news suggests that strong export performance could provide partial support for the Turkish lira, the bullish signals in technical indicators appear more dominant. However, the pace of the uptrend may remain limited.

The news of an export record could enhance economic optimism and positively impact market sentiment. Although the RSI at 70 indicates overbought territory, the MACD above its signal line and the price trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages support a short-term upward trend. The 4.3% increase in the last close suggests momentum may continue. However, the overbought RSI also brings a risk of a short-term correction. Therefore, the upside expectation can be expressed with moderate confidence.

ASELS stock experienced a 1.56% decline in its last close, with the RSI at 40.85, hovering near the lower end of the neutral zone. The MACD remains below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below the 20-day moving average (434.14) but stays above the 50-day moving average (430.36), maintaining a support level. While the headline export record may generate overall economic optimism, its direct impact on defense stocks like ASELS could be limited. As short-term direction remains uncertain, the 425 TL level should be monitored as a critical support.

AKBNK shares closed 6.2% higher at 75.40 TL, trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The RSI stands at 66.8, approaching overbought territory but not yet at dangerous levels. The MACD line remains above the signal line and in positive territory, indicating sustained short-term upward momentum. The reported export record can be interpreted as a positive macroeconomic signal for the banking sector. However, given the recent rapid rise and elevated RSI, some profit-taking may occur in the near term.