Inflation Figures Set to Be Announced Tomorrow Could Impact Markets

Tomorrow's inflation figures could create uncertainty over the Turkish Lira's interest rate policy. Current technical indicators show that USD/TRY is above its 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, the RSI is in an overbought region, and the MACD is above its signal line, supporting a short‑term bullish trend. However, if inflation comes in higher than expected, the Central Bank may raise rates, which could strengthen the TRY and lower USD/TRY. Conversely, if inflation is lower than expected, a rate cut could weaken the TRY and push USD/TRY higher. Therefore, market direction remains uncertain at present.

The 20‑period simple moving average (SMA20) remains above the 50‑period SMA (SMA50), supporting a short‑term bullish trend. RSI and MACD indicators are giving a slight upward signal despite the recent 24‑hour drop. Tomorrow’s inflation data could exert pressure on the currency if it comes in above expectations, potentially increasing short‑term volatility. It is prudent to await the data release before making a definitive directional assessment. Overall, the likelihood of a trend reversal within 1–3 days is low, but disciplined risk management remains essential.

The GBPTRY pair is currently trading at 61.62, experiencing a slight decline over the past 24 hours. The RSI stands at 60.5, indicating a neutral zone, while the MACD remains above its signal line, suggesting short-term upward momentum. However, tomorrow's inflation data release could introduce market uncertainty, potentially limiting price movement. Although technical indicators support a bullish bias, the upcoming news flow makes it difficult to determine a clear direction. Therefore, a sideways trend is expected in the short term.

TUPRS shares fell 3.77% in the last session to 261.75 TL. The RSI has dropped to 40.45, below the neutral zone, while the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory. Trading below the short-term SMA20 (264.83) and medium-term SMA50 (268.85) averages further weakens the technical outlook. Uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's inflation data could exacerbate the already fragile technical structure. The likelihood of a continued short-term downtrend remains high.