Kashkari: Iran War Limits Fed's Interest Rate Guidance

The DXY is trading sideways at 98.12, with the RSI in neutral territory just below 50. The MACD remains below the signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are very close to each other, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the market. Kashkari's statement that the Fed's interest rate guidance is constrained due to the Iran war could increase uncertainty and put pressure on the DXY, but this has not yet been clearly reflected in pricing. In the short term, consolidation within the 98.00-98.30 range can be expected.

USDTRY maintains its short-term uptrend. The RSI at 63.8 has not approached overbought territory, while the MACD remains positive above its signal line. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The news headline points to a geopolitical risk that could support the dollar by limiting Fed rate cut expectations. However, given the limited upside momentum, one should not be overly aggressive.

The news indicates that geopolitical risks could constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This scenario may increase demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Technical indicators also support an upward trend: the RSI is in neutral territory at 58.7, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 4.2% increase over the past 24 hours suggests strong momentum. In the short term, the upward trend is expected to continue.

The news indicates that geopolitical risks are constraining the Fed's interest rate policy, creating uncertainty for oil prices. Technical indicators are sending mixed signals: the RSI is at 45.6, in neutral territory, while the MACD is below zero but close to crossing above its signal line. The price is just above the 20-day moving average but remains below the 50-day moving average. In the short term, it is difficult to determine a clear direction; a squeeze between geopolitical developments and technical resistance levels is highly likely.