April Inflation at 4.18% Monthly, 32.37% Annually

April inflation coming in above expectations may increase concerns that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) could delay interest rate cuts, putting pressure on the Turkish lira. Technically, although the RSI is in neutral territory at 55, the price trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages supports short-term upside potential. However, the MACD line remaining below the signal line indicates weak momentum. Therefore, a limited rise in USDTRY can be expected, but the likelihood of an extreme move is low.

April inflation coming in above expectations could create pressure on the Turkish lira and provide upward support for the EURTRY pair. Technical indicators show the RSI near 60 and above the MACD signal line, suggesting short-term bullish momentum may continue. The price is trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a positive trend. However, the impact of the inflation data may remain limited, and the market could price in potential steps by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB). Therefore, the upside expectation is supported with moderate confidence.

April inflation came in at an annual 32.37%, above expectations, which could create depreciation pressure on the Turkish Lira. Technically, the RSI is at 63 in positive territory, while the MACD is above its signal line and supports an upward trend. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating that short-term upward momentum may continue. However, a possible central bank intervention or tightening step following the inflation data could limit the upside. Therefore, the upward expectation is supported with moderate confidence.