Barclays Becomes Latest Major Broker to Predict No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

Barclays' projection that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until 2026 could strengthen a hawkish perception of the Fed in the markets. This may reduce risk appetite in the short term, leading to outflows from emerging markets and a stronger dollar. Turkish markets could also be negatively affected due to the rising global interest rate environment and pressure on the dollar/TL exchange rate. However, this forecast should not be considered in isolation but rather evaluated alongside the actions of other central banks.

GOOGL shares closed up 3.8% over the past 24 hours at $400.81, with the RSI reaching 68, approaching overbought territory. While the MACD remains below the signal line, Barclays' forecast that the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2026 could pressure growth stocks. Short-term upward momentum may weaken, and the stock could consolidate around the $400 level. Although technical indicators do not signal overbought conditions, diminishing rate cut expectations may trigger profit-taking in technology stocks.

The S&P 500 (SPX) has entered overbought territory as its RSI approaches 70, while the MACD has fallen below the signal line, potentially signaling a short-term slowdown or correction. Barclays' forecast that the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 could weaken market expectations for rate cuts, putting pressure on equities. However, the index remains above the SMA20 and SMA50 and has risen 1.78% in the last 24 hours, indicating that the overall trend is still strong. In the short term, a sideways movement or slight pullback is likely, but more data is needed to determine a clear direction.

The NDX is in overbought territory with an RSI of 78.8, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. Barclays' forecast that the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 could weaken market expectations for rate cuts, potentially pressuring growth stocks. The 4.17% rise in the last 24 hours may partially offset the negative impact of the news, but overbought signals and disappointment in rate cut expectations could lead to selling pressure in the short term. Although the MACD still maintains an upward trend, the possibility of weakening momentum should be considered.