US and Iran Close to Ending War with One-Page Agreement

The headline indicates that a deal has been reached between the US and Iran to end hostilities. This development could reduce geopolitical risk premiums and ease concerns over oil supply disruptions. On the technical side, the RSI stands at 51.6, in neutral territory, while the MACD is below zero but above its signal line, showing a weak bullish bias. However, the latest close at $101.29, with a daily decline of 1.76%, points to increasing selling pressure. In the short term, Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline on the back of this news.

The news indicates a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices. Technically, the price is at 95.42, just above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, but has experienced a 2.3% decline in the last 24 hours. The RSI is neutral at 50.6, and while the MACD is slightly above the signal line, momentum is weak. In the short term, expectations of peace may reduce supply concerns, potentially leading to a bearish trend.

The news points to a reduction in geopolitical risks, which puts downward pressure on oil prices. However, XOM stock has fallen 6.8% in the last 24 hours, entering oversold territory with an RSI of 32.8. A short-term technical rebound is highly likely as the price is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The MACD line is approaching the signal line and may be preparing to give a bullish crossover signal. However, since the downtrend has not yet been broken, the upside expectation is limited with moderate confidence.

Although the news signals a reduction in geopolitical risks and easing concerns over oil supply, CVX shares have fallen 6.1% in the last 24 hours to $181.46. The RSI at 34.5 is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD remains below the signal line but with a narrowing gap, indicating potential for a short-term recovery. However, with the stock trading below its 20-day ($182.64) and 50-day ($188.21) moving averages, upside movement may be limited. The combination of positive news and oversold technical conditions suggests a slight rebound could occur within 1-3 days.