Asian Markets Mixed, Oil Jumps 3% After Trump Rejects Iran's Ceasefire Response

Oil prices rose 3% after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire offer, increasing the geopolitical risk premium. Technical indicators support this rally: RSI at 55 is in neutral territory but with upward momentum, MACD is above the signal line and positive, and the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The short-term uptrend is expected to continue, with low correction risk as the market has not entered overbought territory. However, caution is advised due to potential sudden volatility linked to geopolitical developments.

Oil prices jumped 3% after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire offer, increasing the geopolitical risk premium. Technically, the RSI is at 51, in neutral territory, while the MACD remains below the signal line. The price is trading just above the 20-day SMA, but staying above the 50-day SMA is positive. Short-term upward momentum may continue, and since the market is not yet overbought, there is further upside potential. However, it should be noted that the news impact may be temporary and the $100 level could act as resistance.

The HSI closed just below the 20-day SMA (26,426) but managed to stay above the 50-day SMA (26,173). The RSI is at 56, in neutral territory, while the MACD remains below the signal line, indicating weak momentum. The spike in oil prices mentioned in the news headline could support energy stocks, but the overall impact may be limited due to geopolitical risks and a mixed Asian session. A sideways trend is expected in the short term.

The Nikkei 225 closed with a strong gain of 4.66% at 62,437, but remained just below its 20-day moving average (62,642). The RSI at 59.4 is in neutral territory and does not signal overbought conditions. The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating weakening upward momentum in the short term. Geopolitical risks highlighted in the news headlines and a spike in oil prices have led to a mixed performance in Asian markets, while the Nikkei's position in a technical resistance zone makes it difficult to determine a clear direction. Therefore, a sideways trend is expected in the near term.