Norden Assumes Hormuz Strait Will Remain Closed for the Rest of the Year

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout the year could lead to a significant contraction in oil supply, creating upward pressure on Brent prices. Technically, although the RSI is in neutral territory at 46, and the MACD line being below the signal line indicates short-term weakness, the geopolitical risk premium generated by the news may suppress this effect. Despite the price being below the SMA20 (103.87), it remains above the SMA50 (101.90), suggesting medium-term support. The 2.7% rise in the last 24 hours confirms that the market has reacted positively to this news. In the short term, the upward movement is expected to continue, but cautious optimism should be maintained as the market has not yet entered overbought territory.

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout the year signals a serious risk of disruption to oil supply, which could provide upward support for WTI prices. Technically, the price is trading just above the 50-day moving average (96.16), and the RSI at 42.6 is approaching oversold territory, offering short-term recovery potential. Although the MACD line remains below the signal line, the 2.1% gain in the last 24 hours indicates increasing momentum. However, the 20-day moving average (98.02) stands as resistance, and this level needs to be breached. Due to the uncertainty of geopolitical risks and technical resistances, the upside expectation is assessed with moderate confidence.

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout the year points to a significant risk of disruption in oil supply. XOM shares have fallen 5.5% in the last 24 hours, with an RSI of 46 indicating weak territory. Although the MACD is in negative territory, it has crossed above the signal line, which could offer some short-term recovery potential. However, geopolitical risks and trading below the 50-day SMA suggest that downward pressure may persist. The short-term trend is expected to remain bearish.

The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout the year could trigger a sudden surge in oil prices and positively impact energy companies such as CVX. Technically, the RSI is in neutral territory at 48, while the MACD is above its signal line and trending upward. The price is just above the 20-day SMA, providing short-term support. However, a 5% decline over the past 24 hours and trading below the 50-day SMA warrant caution. A short-term upward move may be expected due to the news, but overly aggressive positioning should be avoided.