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74/100 Bearish 12.05.2026 · 13:23 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 9 TR

All Eyes on the Fed for Interest Rate Decision: What Are the Expectations?

The inflation data released in the US came in at 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. This caused mild selling pressure in financial markets, shifting investors' focus to the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) next interest rate decision. The higher-than-expected inflation has increased uncertainty about the Fed's next move in monetary policy. Market participants are closely monitoring the timing of the Fed's rate decision and the possibility of a rate cut. While the high inflation data is interpreted as a sign that the central bank may maintain its tight stance, some analysts suggest that expectations for a rate cut could be delayed. Although inflation has recently shown signs of slowing, this data may prompt the Fed to remain cautious. The Fed's interest rate decision has a decisive impact on global markets. Currencies such as the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the dollar/lira (USDTRY) are experiencing volatile trading ahead of the decision. Investors will be looking for clues about the future direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks. Although markets point to the second half of the year for a rate cut, the trajectory of inflation could alter this timeline. In the coming days, statements from Fed officials and upcoming economic data will shape expectations for the rate decision. Investors need to carefully manage their positions in anticipation of a potential rate cut or a decision to hold rates steady. Markets expect the Fed to balance its commitment to fighting inflation with growth concerns. This is not investment advice.

📊 NDX — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

NDX is trading below its 20-day moving average (29,042) with the RSI at 44.9, indicating weak momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting negative short-term momentum. However, the price is holding above the 50-day moving average (28,451) and rose 0.55% yesterday. With the market in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, a sideways trend is expected until direction becomes clearer.

RSI 14
44.9
MACD
193.89
24h Δ
0.55%

📊 USDJPY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

USDJPY is trading at 157.737, with the RSI at 66.6 approaching overbought territory. While the MACD remains above its signal line, indicating a positive outlook, it also suggests weakening momentum. Headlines highlight uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate decision, which could be a key short-term driver. Although technical indicators maintain a bullish bias, the news-driven uncertainty and the RSI nearing overbought levels suggest limited upside potential. Therefore, a sideways movement is expected in the near term.

RSI 14
66.6
MACD
0.14
24h Δ
0.38%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The DXY has entered overbought territory, with its RSI14 above the 70 level. This increases the likelihood of a short-term correction or profit-taking. News headlines indicate that markets are focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, creating uncertainty. The overbought signal from technical indicators, combined with the uncertainty generated by the news, could trigger a downward move in the DXY. However, since the trend remains bullish, any decline is expected to be limited.

RSI 14
70.1
MACD
0.10
24h Δ
0.50%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

The USDTRY pair may follow a sideways trajectory in the near term as technical indicators send mixed signals. The RSI stands at 54, neither in overbought nor oversold territory, offering no clear directional signal. The MACD line is very close to the signal line and just above zero, indicating weak momentum. Although the price remains above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, the narrow gap between these averages points to a period of horizontal consolidation. While market attention is focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, the impact on USDTRY typically becomes clearer after the decision; thus, pre-decision uncertainty may keep price movements limited.

RSI 14
53.9
MACD
0.00
24h Δ
0.06%
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