U.S. Inflation Peak Set for May or June 2024

The announcement that the period during which U.S. inflation will reach its peak has been identified could positively affect markets by increasing the likelihood of a short‑term pause in rate hikes. Technical indicators for MS also support an uptrend: MACD is above the signal line, SMA20 is above SMA50, and RSI is at a moderate level. These factors raise the probability of a modest price uptick within 1–3 days. However, the risk of macro data diverging from expectations should also be considered. Overall, MS’s price may experience a slight increase in the short term.

The news that the period when inflation will reach its peak has been identified could generate both positive and negative expectations in the market. High inflation expectations could trigger interest rate hikes, yet the anticipation of a peak may also signal a reduction in inflationary pressure. Technical indicators show the price above the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, but with the MACD signal line above, short‑term uncertainty remains. Consequently, 1‑ to 3‑day movements are likely to stay neutral.

The identification of the period when U.S. inflation will peak could signal a slowdown in rate hikes, sending a positive signal to markets. However, the current indicators for the NDX (RSI 57, MACD below signal, price slightly below the 20‑period SMA) suggest modest downside pressure in the short term. Therefore, a major move is not expected within 1‑3 days; markets may remain stable with minor fluctuations. When new bullish signals emerge, the likelihood of a rebound in the index could increase. Overall, the market is likely to stay neutral until the short‑term direction becomes clearer.

The DXY rose 0.23% in 24 hours and is trading above its 20‑day SMA. The RSI sits at 58.8, close to the overbought region but not yet overbought. Although the MACD is below the signal line, the overall trend remains bullish. In the short term (1‑3 days), a modest strengthening of the dollar is expected.