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64/100 Neutral 13.05.2026 · 09:25 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 8 TR

US Revises Oil Price Forecast Downward

As the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, major banks such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have raised the scenario that oil prices could reach $150 if the blockade lasts until June. Despite these alarming forecasts, the US administration has revised its oil price expectation for this year downward. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its 2025 oil price forecast, sending a different signal to markets. This revision is interpreted as indicating that the impact of geopolitical risks on prices may remain limited. Analysts note that the increase in US crude oil production and releases from strategic reserves have alleviated supply concerns. However, they warn that if the blockade in Hormuz extends, serious disruptions in global oil supply could occur. The $150 scenario from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan is based on the assumption that the blockade will last until June. In this case, oil prices are expected to approach historical highs. However, the US downward revision strengthens expectations that prices can be kept under control in the short term. This is not investment advice.

📊 JPM — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news reflects expectations of falling oil prices, which could pressure the energy sector and negatively impact banks' energy loan portfolios, such as JPM. Technically, the price is trading below the 50-day moving average (306.86), and the MACD remains in negative territory, indicating short-term weakness. Although the RSI is neutral at 53, the 0.79% decline in the last 24 hours and the effort to stay above the SMA20 do not fully confirm a bearish trend. Therefore, I assess it with a slight bearish bias but low confidence.

RSI 14
53.1
MACD
-0.79
24h Δ
-0.79%

📊 MS — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 30%

The news may pressure energy sector stocks as it reflects expectations of falling oil prices. However, MS (Morgan Stanley), being a financial services company, is not directly dependent on oil prices. Technical indicators give mixed signals: RSI at 54 is in neutral territory, while MACD is below zero but close to crossing above its signal line. Determining a clear direction in the short term is difficult, so a neutral stance is recommended.

RSI 14
53.9
MACD
-0.06
24h Δ
0.75%

📊 BP — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The headline indicates that the US has revised its oil price forecast downward, which could be interpreted as a negative signal for oil companies such as BP. On the technical indicators, the RSI stands at 51.8, in neutral territory, while the MACD remains above its signal line but still negative. The price is above the 20-day moving average but below the 50-day average, suggesting a short-term recovery attempt despite a weak medium-term trend. Selling pressure may increase due to the news, but since technical indicators are not in oversold territory, the decline is expected to be limited.

RSI 14
51.8
MACD
-0.05
24h Δ
1.21%

📊 CVX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news headline indicates that the US has revised its oil price forecast downward. This could create negative pressure on energy sector stocks. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI at 56 is in neutral territory, MACD is positive but close to the signal line. The stock is trading above the 20-day moving average but below the 50-day average. In the short term, selling pressure may emerge due to the news, but technical levels do not confirm a full downtrend.

RSI 14
56.0
MACD
0.37
24h Δ
1.95%
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