Fed Not Expected to Cut Rates in 2025; War-Driven Inflation Seen as Temporary

According to a Reuters survey, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is not expected to cut interest rates this year. Economists broadly agree that war-driven inflation is temporary. The survey forecasts that the Fed will keep its current policy rate unchanged throughout the year. Participants believe geopolitical tensions are creating upward pressure on inflation, but this effect will not be permanent. It is stated that war-related price increases are temporary, and therefore the Fed will not rush to cut rates. According to the survey, the majority of economists predict the Fed will not change rates throughout 2025. This means that previously anticipated rate cut expectations in the markets will not materialize. Investors assess that if the Fed maintains its tight monetary policy, the dollar could strengthen and put pressure on risky assets. However, the view that inflation is temporary limits long-term rate expectations. This is not investment advice.

📊 GOOGL — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

GOOGL shares fell more than 3% in the last close, dropping to $387.70. Although the RSI at 37.7 approaches oversold territory, the MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, confirming weak momentum. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages ($395.42 and $395.16, respectively). News that the Fed may not cut interest rates in 2025 is a macroeconomic factor that could pressure growth stocks. The short-term technical outlook is weak, with a risk of continued selling pressure.

RSI 14

37.7

MACD

-2.25

24h Δ

-3.05%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 65%

The news indicates that the Fed does not expect to cut interest rates and views inflation as temporary. This points to a monetary policy stance that supports the DXY. Technical indicators also support the upward trend: the RSI is at 57, in neutral territory, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. In the short term, the upward movement can be expected to continue, and since it is not approaching overbought territory, there is strong momentum.

RSI 14

57.4

MACD

0.05

24h Δ

0.35%

📊 USDJPY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

The news indicates that the Fed does not expect a rate cut and views war-driven inflation as temporary. While this supports the USD, the market may have already priced in this expectation. Technical indicators do not provide a clear directional signal, with the RSI at 53 in neutral territory and the MACD hovering near the signal line. The price remains above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, but upward momentum is limited. In the short term, the impact of the news may be limited, and USDJPY could continue to trade within its current range.

RSI 14

53.1

MACD

0.03

24h Δ

0.01%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

USDTRY is trading at 45.5851, remaining nearly flat over the past 24 hours. The RSI stands at 56, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD gives a weak buy signal just above its signal line. The price continues to hold above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, pointing to a short-term uptrend. However, the lack of expectations for a Fed rate cut could pressure emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, the perception of war-induced inflation as temporary adds uncertainty, supporting a sideways trend.

RSI 14

56.2

MACD

0.00

24h Δ

0.00%

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