HSBC Raises Year‑End USD/TRY Forecast from 48 to 50

HSBC's upward revision of its year-end USD/TRY forecast from 48 to 50 strengthens bullish expectations for the exchange rate. Technical indicators support this view, with the RSI at 59.6 indicating an upward trend and the MACD line above the signal line showing a positive outlook. The price is trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that short-term buying pressure may continue. However, the limited 0.1% rise in the last 24 hours and the RSI not approaching overbought territory indicate that the movement could be controlled. Therefore, the bullish expectation is supported with medium-high confidence.

HSBC's upward revision of its USD/TRY forecast may increase expectations of depreciation in the Turkish lira, potentially weighing on the currency. Technical indicators also point to weakness: the RSI is near the sell zone at 40, the MACD is below its signal line, and the price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 2.7% decline over the past 24 hours suggests continued selling pressure. While the short-term downtrend is likely to persist, the absence of oversold conditions leaves room for potential corrective buying.