HSBC raises USD/TRY forecast to 50 by year-end

HSBC has raised its year-end USD/TRY forecast for the Turkish lira from 48 to 50. The bank cited high inflation and a widening current account deficit as key factors behind this revision. It also warned that the current pace of nominal depreciation in the lira may not be sustainable in the long term. In its report, HSBC stated that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to maintain its current foreign exchange policies. However, it emphasized that inflation and macroeconomic pressures continue to pose downside risks to the lira. The bank noted that the impact of these risks on the exchange rate should be closely monitored. This is not investment advice.

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 30%

USDTRY is trading at 45.52, experiencing a slight decline over the past 24 hours. The RSI at 32.7 is approaching oversold territory, but the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating short-term weakness. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supporting a bearish technical outlook. While HSBC's year-end target of 50 TRY reflects a long-term expectation, current technical indicators in the short term point to further downside. However, the oversold condition and low trading volume suggest that the decline may be limited.

RSI 14

32.7

MACD

0.00

24h Δ

-0.12%

📊 HSBC — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

HSBC's upward revision of its dollar/TL forecast could create pressure on Turkish lira-denominated assets, indirectly weighing on HSBC's stock. Technical indicators also point to weakness: the RSI is at 40 and the MACD is below its signal line, supporting a short-term bearish trend. The stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages and has lost 2.7% in the last 24 hours. However, the direct impact of this news on the stock may be limited, so I assess the downside with moderate confidence.

RSI 14

40.5

MACD

-0.28

24h Δ

-2.71%

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