ECB's Wunsch: June Rate Hike Highly Likely If War Ends

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch stated that if the Iran war does not end by then, the ECB is highly likely to raise borrowing costs next month. Wunsch indicated that a rate hike at the June meeting is quite probable. Wunsch's comments reflect the ECB's commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy to combat inflation. However, he signaled that this plan could change if geopolitical risks persist. The ECB official emphasized that the end of the war would be a decisive factor in the rate decision. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB's June meeting, and Wunsch's remarks have reinforced these expectations. Analysts assess that the ECB will continue to act in line with its inflation target, but external shocks could affect the policy path. This is not investment advice.

📊 EURUSD — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

A rate hike signal from an ECB member could pressure the EUR in the near term. Technical indicators already present a weak outlook: the RSI at 36.5 is near oversold territory, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The MACD is below the zero line and close to the signal line, confirming weak momentum. The news may reinforce the current downtrend, but the low RSI level keeps the possibility of a short-term rebound alive. Therefore, the downside expectation can be expressed with moderate confidence.

RSI 14

36.5

MACD

-0.00

24h Δ

-0.24%

📊 EURJPY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

A rate hike signal from an ECB member could support the euro against the yen, but technical indicators paint a weak picture. The RSI at 37.5 is near oversold territory, while the MACD remains negative below the signal line. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish trend. Despite the positive news, upside movement may be limited due to the weak technical structure and bearish momentum. Therefore, the bearish trend is likely to continue in the short term.

RSI 14

37.5

MACD

-0.12

24h Δ

-0.30%

📊 EURGBP — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

A rate hike signal from an ECB member could support the Euro, potentially adding downward pressure on EURGBP. Technical indicators already present a weak outlook: the RSI is near oversold territory at 38, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The MACD is below the zero line and close to the signal line, confirming weak momentum. The bearish trend is expected to continue in the short term, but the low RSI level also carries the risk of a sudden corrective rally.

RSI 14

38.5

MACD

-0.00

24h Δ

-0.13%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

A rate hike signal from an ECB member could strengthen the EUR, indirectly pushing the DXY higher. On the technical side, the RSI at 64.6 is not yet in overbought territory, while the MACD remains positive above its signal line. The price is trading above both the SMA20 and SMA50, supporting a short-term bullish trend. However, the impact of the news may be limited, and given that the market is already in an uptrend, there is a risk of a correction.

RSI 14

64.7

MACD

0.05

24h Δ

0.18%

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