Cocoa Prices Drop 64% from Historic Highs, Yet Chocolate Shelves Remain Unaffected

In global commodity markets, cocoa has experienced a sharp correction from its historic record level of over $12,900 per ton, falling to the $3,800–$4,100 range. Despite a decline of more than 64% in futures prices for the raw material, chocolate prices in stores remain high. Behind this situation lie structural supply crises, rising energy and logistics costs, and high-priced forward purchase contracts made by food giants months in advance. While increased supply has eased the exchange, shrinkflation pressure on shelves continues to have an impact. Although the drop in cocoa prices is a significant development for producers and investors, its reflection on consumers may take time. Market participants are closely monitoring when these price movements will be reflected in retail prices. This is not investment advice.