Fed Minutes Show Increased Likelihood of Rate Hike

The Fed minutes indicating an increased likelihood of a rate hike could create selling pressure in the markets. Although the RSI on the SPX is at 55.4, remaining in neutral territory, the MACD being in negative territory and the price trading just above the 50-day moving average (7413) point to a fragile situation. In the short term, a pullback towards the 7384 level (20-day average) is highly probable. However, the impact of the news may be limited, as the market may have already partially priced in this expectation.

The Fed minutes indicating an increased likelihood of rate hikes could suppress risk appetite, creating short-term selling pressure on the NDX. Technically, while the RSI at 56 remains in neutral territory, the MACD above its signal line suggests weakening bullish momentum. Although the price staying above the SMA20 is positive, it remains below the SMA50, and yesterday's slight decline indicates that selling could deepen under the influence of the news. In the short term, the 29000 level may be tested, but the decline is expected to remain limited.

The DXY is trading at 99.16, with a negative 24-hour change. The RSI at 39.7 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the short-term downtrend may persist. The MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating weak momentum. The price is trading below both the 20-day (99.33) and 50-day (99.23) moving averages, presenting a technically weak outlook. Although the Fed's increased likelihood of rate hikes typically supports the DXY, current technical indicators are sending stronger bearish signals. Therefore, further downside movement is expected in the short term.