Danske Bank: ECB Could Raise Rates in June and July

Danske Bank forecasts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates at its next two meetings. The bank expects the ECB to implement two separate rate hikes of 25 basis points each in June and July. This projection appears aligned with market expectations regarding the ECB's current monetary policy stance. If the ECB proceeds with rate hikes, it would signal continued efforts to combat inflation in the eurozone. Danske Bank analysts note that these steps are part of the ECB's tightening cycle, aimed at bringing inflation back to target levels. Rate hike expectations could also impact euro exchange rates. However, Danske Bank's forecast focuses solely on ECB policy and does not include direct predictions for specific currency pairs. Investors continue to closely monitor the ECB's decisions at upcoming meetings and economic data. Markets are pricing in the likelihood of rate hikes, and Danske Bank's outlook is being carefully evaluated. This is not investment advice.

📊 EURUSD — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The news may support the EUR by strengthening expectations of an ECB rate hike. Technically, the RSI is neutral at 47.5, while the MACD is below the signal line but near zero, indicating weak bullish potential. The price is just below the SMA20 (1.1624) and close to the SMA50 (1.1615), increasing the likelihood of a short-term squeeze and upside breakout. However, the rate hike expectation may already be priced in, posing a risk of limited upside. Overall, a slight bullish bias can be expected.

RSI 14

47.5

MACD

0.00

24h Δ

0.21%

📊 EURJPY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

Expectations of an ECB rate hike could support the euro, creating an upward move in EURJPY. However, the RSI remains below 50 and the price is trading just below the SMA20, indicating weak short-term momentum. The MACD continues to stay below the signal line, suggesting persistent selling pressure. Therefore, despite the positive impact of the news, technical indicators point to a downside risk. The short-term bearish trend prevails.

RSI 14

49.5

MACD

0.04

24h Δ

0.17%

📊 EURTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 65%

Expectations of an ECB rate hike could generally support the euro, potentially creating upward pressure on the EURTRY parity. Technically, the RSI is at 57, in neutral territory, while the MACD is above its signal line and positive, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting an upward trend. However, I am not highly confident due to potential volatility in the Turkish lira and the risk that the news impact may remain limited.

RSI 14

57.1

MACD

0.05

24h Δ

0.47%

📊 EURGBP — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

EURGBP remains below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 32 but not yet in oversold territory. The MACD is below its signal line and in negative territory, indicating weak short-term momentum. News suggests the ECB is likely to raise interest rates, which typically supports the Euro, but the GBP also has its own rate expectations. Given the weak technical structure, upside movement may be limited and the bearish trend could continue.

RSI 14

32.0

MACD

-0.00

24h Δ

-0.18%

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