TCMB Inflation Expectations: Market Rise, Household Decline

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) released its Sectoral Inflation Expectations report. The report shows that market participants’ annual inflation expectations increased by 0.43 percentage points to 23.82% compared with the previous month. Expectations for the real sector fell by 0.60 percentage points to 33.10%, indicating a slight easing of price pressures in manufacturing and services. Household expectations dropped by 2.05 percentage points to 49.51%, suggesting that concerns over consumer price inflation are easing and signalling a potential relaxation in consumer spending. The divergence between market and household expectations highlights that different dynamics are influencing the path to the policy makers’ price‑stability targets. The future trajectory of inflation may therefore depend on the balance between these two perspectives. This is not investment advice.

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The rise in market-side inflation expectations for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) may exert short-term pressure on the Turkish lira (TRY). However, the decline in household expectations could reduce the risk of a slowdown in consumer spending, thereby supporting the TRY. Technical indicators point to an uptrend, with the price trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, and the MACD above its signal line. Therefore, a slight upward movement in USD/TRY is anticipated over the 1-3 day period. The move is expected to remain limited due to market uncertainty.

RSI 14

63.1

MACD

0.04

24h Δ

0.28%

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