Commerzbank: If the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Oil Could Reach New Peaks

Commerzbank’s Head of Currency and Commodities Research, Thu Lan Nguyen, assessed the impact of ongoing Middle East tensions on energy prices. In a Bloomberg Television interview, Nguyen stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into the summer, crude oil prices could approach, or even exceed, the recent peaks observed. Nguyen noted that geopolitical risks are heightening supply concerns in the oil market, exerting upward pressure on prices. He warned that should the Strait not reopen, the market could move beyond its current high levels. The analyst added that disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz—a critical juncture for global oil supply—could have a pronounced effect when combined with increased demand during the summer months. In this scenario, benchmark crude prices such as Brent and WTI could break new records. This is not investment advice.

📊 BRENT — Piyasa Yorumu

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Commerzbank's statement that oil prices could reach new highs if the Strait of Hormuz is closed may create upward pressure on oil prices. The RSI14 indicator is at 51.16, in neutral territory. The MACD and MACD signal lines are in negative territory but converging, which could increase the likelihood of a short-term recovery. However, it should be noted that a decline of 0.33% has occurred in the last 24 hours.

RSI 14

51.2

MACD

-0.41

24h Δ

-0.33%

📊 WTI — Piyasa Yorumu

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The news headline indicates that oil prices could reach new highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This geopolitical risk may create upward pressure in the short term due to supply disruption concerns. Technical indicators present a neutral picture: RSI is at 50, MACD is below zero but close to crossing above the signal line, and the price is just above the SMA20. Therefore, there is upside potential, but further confirmation is needed for a strong breakout.

RSI 14

50.3

MACD

-0.49

24h Δ

-0.57%

📊 XOM — Piyasa Yorumu

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The news headline indicates that oil prices could reach new highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. This situation could serve as a positive catalyst for energy company XOM. However, technical indicators paint a weak picture: the RSI is at 40.87 in the neutral-to-bearish zone, the MACD is below the signal line, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A decline of 3.6% has occurred in the last 24 hours. In the short term, the positive impact of the news may be limited by technical resistance, so the likelihood of an upward move is moderate.

RSI 14

40.9

MACD

-0.76

24h Δ

-3.63%

📊 CVX — Piyasa Yorumu

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The news headline indicates that oil prices could reach new highs if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. This geopolitical risk may serve as a positive catalyst for energy companies. Technically, CVX is trading just above its 50-day SMA (190.84), with the RSI at 44.6, approaching oversold territory. Although the MACD is in negative territory, the price being below the 20-day SMA (193.49) signals short-term pressure. However, the potential upward momentum generated by the news could temporarily offset the technical weakness.

RSI 14

44.6

MACD

-0.40

24h Δ

-2.28%

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