JPMorgan: TCMB Could Raise Interest Rate to 40%

JPMorgan's expectation of a rate hike by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) can be interpreted as a positive signal for the banking sector. Technical indicators also support this view; the RSI at 57 is in a bullish trend within neutral territory, the MACD is above the signal line and positive. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, since the rate hike expectation has not yet been finalized and the market may have partially priced in this news, there is a risk that the upside may be limited.

The news suggests that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) may raise interest rates, which typically supports the Turkish lira and could lead to a decline in USDTRY. However, technical indicators show the RSI approaching overbought territory at 63, with the price above both the SMA20 and SMA50, indicating that upward momentum may continue in the short term. The impact of the news may not be immediate, as the market may have already priced in the rate decision. Therefore, while the direction is upward, confidence is moderate.

AKBNK stock experienced a sharp decline of nearly 10% in the last closing session, with its RSI dropping to 22.8, entering oversold territory. MACD values remain in negative territory and below the signal line, confirming weak momentum. News that JPMorgan expects the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) to raise interest rates to 40% could add further pressure on the banking sector. Although short-term technical indicators signal oversold conditions, downside risks persist due to rate hike expectations and the prevailing downtrend. Therefore, the outlook is assessed as bearish.