HSBC: Interest Rate Hike Back on the Agenda in Turkey

HSBC shares rose 2.9% in the last close and are trading above their 20- and 50-day moving averages. The RSI stands at 60, not approaching overbought territory, while the MACD is positive and above its signal line. In Turkey, expectations of an interest rate hike could serve as a short-term positive catalyst for banks exposed to emerging markets, such as HSBC. However, given that the rate hike has not been confirmed and the risk that market expectations may already be priced in, the upside potential may be limited.

HSBC's suggestion of a potential interest rate hike could increase confidence in the Turkish lira in the short term and limit upward pressure on USDTRY. However, current technical indicators maintain a bullish trend, with the RSI at 63 (above neutral) and the MACD above its signal line. The price trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages also supports a short-term positive outlook. The impact of the news may be limited, as a rate hike is not yet a confirmed decision. Therefore, the upward expectation can be expressed with low-to-medium confidence.

AKBNK shares have declined by 8.9% in the last 24 hours, falling to 63.05 TL. Although the RSI has entered oversold territory at 28.9, the MACD and signal line remain in negative territory and are trending downward. Trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages weakens the technical outlook. News of HSBC's expectation of an interest rate hike could pressure the banking sector and lead to continued selling in the short term. While the oversold condition may signal a potential buying opportunity for a rebound, the bearish trend remains dominant given the downward trajectory.

AKCNS shares have surged sharply by 15.8% in the last 24 hours, pushing the RSI to 71.5, indicating overbought conditions. Technically, the likelihood of a short-term correction or consolidation has increased. HSBC's recent mention of potential interest rate hikes in Turkey could be considered a macro event that may negatively impact overall market sentiment. However, the stock's strong upward trend and the MACD remaining in positive territory suggest that a bearish move may not materialize immediately. Therefore, no clear signal has emerged for the short-term direction.