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85/100 Bearish 22.05.2026 · 14:19 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 21 TR

Markets Fully Price in Fed Rate Hike by December

Traders in the bond market have fully priced in a Federal Reserve interest rate hike within this year. This reflects market confidence that new Chairman Kevin Warsh must act swiftly to combat inflation. Investors are pricing in a 100% probability of a rate hike by December, putting upward pressure on bond yields. Market participants anticipate that Warsh will pursue an aggressive monetary policy to contain inflationary pressures. The new Fed chairman is expected to start the tightening cycle early, leading to a rise in short-term interest rates. This bond market activity reflects investor concerns about inflation and the central bank's response. This is not investment advice.

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The DXY is trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 53 indicating a slightly bullish bias in neutral territory. The MACD line is above the signal line and in positive territory, supporting short-term upward momentum. News headlines suggest that expectations of a Fed rate hike could support the DXY. However, a slight decline over the past 24 hours and low volatility point to limited upside potential. Therefore, a short-term upward move is possible, but a strong breakout may require additional catalysts.

RSI 14
53.2
MACD
0.02
24h Δ
-0.07%

📊 SPX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news could create pressure on the market by reflecting expectations of a Fed rate hike. The RSI at 67.9 is approaching overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. Although the MACD is positive, it is at a level where momentum could signal weakening. While being above SMA20 and SMA50 supports the overall trend, the rate hike expectation and overbought signal may generate selling pressure in the short term. Therefore, a slight decline can be expected in the near term.

RSI 14
67.9
MACD
17.36
24h Δ
1.23%

📊 NDX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news reflects expectations of a Fed rate hike, which could suppress risk appetite. NDX's RSI approaching the overbought zone at 67 and the price trading above the 20- and 50-day moving averages suggest short-term correction potential. The MACD is positive but nearing the signal line, indicating weakening momentum. Profit-taking may occur after a 2.1% rise in the last 24 hours, leading to a potential downward movement in the short term.

RSI 14
67.3
MACD
109.67
24h Δ
2.15%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

USDTRY is trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 57, maintaining an upward bias. Although the MACD is just below the signal line, it remains positive above zero, indicating that momentum, while weak, is still to the upside. The Fed's rate hike expectations could pressure emerging market currencies and strengthen the USD. However, given that the pair is already at elevated levels, the upside move may be limited. In the short term, the uptrend prevails, but caution is advised.

RSI 14
57.5
MACD
0.03
24h Δ
0.28%
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