Non-War Factors Behind the Rise in Bond Yields

The recent rise in long-term bond yields cannot be attributed solely to inflation concerns following the Iran war. Market participants assess that this movement is driven by more structural factors such as high public debt, widening budget deficits, artificial intelligence investments, and potential interest rate hikes by central banks. Uncertainties in the global economy increase the risk premium in bond markets, while deterioration in public finances exerts upward pressure on long-term interest rates. Particularly in developed countries, growing budget deficits lead investors to demand higher yields. Intensive investments in artificial intelligence create demand increases in the energy and technology sectors, which could trigger inflationary pressures. The possibility of central banks raising interest rates in response to these developments stands out as another factor supporting the rise in bond yields. Experts indicate that this movement in the bond market is not temporary and could become more permanent due to structural transformations. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic balances as well as geopolitical risks. This is not investment advice.