Iran War Will Nullify Global Oil Demand Growth This Year

The potential zeroing of global oil demand due to the Iran conflict could push oil prices higher, offering a profit‑margin boost for producers such as BP. However, current technical indicators show that prices are trading slightly below short‑term averages and exhibit a mild downward trend. Consequently, the positive impact of the news may remain limited in the near term. In the short run, a rebound toward the SMA20 and SMA50 levels is expected.

The Iran conflict could lift oil prices in the short term due to supply constraints. CVX’s profit‑margin upside potential is high, which could support the share price. However, current technical indicators—negative MACD and price trading below simple moving averages—signal short‑term resistance. Consequently, a brief rebound may be expected from the news effect, but volatility risk remains elevated. Investors are advised to reassess their positions in light of their risk tolerance.

Following the announcement of the Iran conflict, a rise in oil prices is anticipated, which could positively impact OXY’s profit margin. However, technical indicators show that the price remains below the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, the RSI is in the 30‑40 range, and the price is in a downtrend. The MACD is above its signal line, which may signal a short‑term rebound, but the strength of this signal is limited. Market volatility could be high over a 1‑ to 3‑day period, so the move may lack a clear direction. Overall, the news may create a modest short‑term upward pressure, but technical resistance levels could constrain the move.

The potential cancellation of global oil demand growth due to the Iran conflict could exert downward pressure on prices. A 1% rise over the past 24 hours and an RSI hovering around 55 suggest a modest short‑term upward bias. However, despite the MACD remaining above its signal line, the price remains below both the 20‑ and 50‑day moving averages, indicating a gradual shift toward a downtrend. Consequently, a 1‑ to 3‑day outlook points to a likely slight decline or consolidation. Investors are advised to reassess their positions in line with their risk tolerance.