Danske Bank: ECB to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in June

Danske Bank expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates at its June monetary policy meeting. The bank forecasts a 25 basis point increase in the ECB's policy rate, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. This projection aligns with market expectations. The ECB's move is seen as a continuation of its tightening cycle to combat inflation. According to Danske Bank's analysis, current economic conditions and price pressures necessitate a rate hike by the central bank. Markets are focused on the ECB's June meeting. The rate hike expectation could lead to volatility in eurozone bond yields and the euro/dollar exchange rate. Investors will closely monitor the ECB President's post-meeting remarks. This is not investment advice.

📊 EURUSD — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

EURUSD has entered overbought territory with the RSI above 70, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. Although the news reflects expectations of an ECB rate hike, this expectation may already be largely priced in, potentially triggering a 'sell the fact' reaction. While the MACD line remains above the signal line, there are signs of weakening momentum. Despite trading above the SMA20 and SMA50, overbought conditions and potential profit-taking support a short-term downward move. Therefore, a bearish outlook appears more probable in the near term.

RSI 14

70.3

MACD

0.00

24h Δ

0.35%

📊 DAX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

Expectations of an ECB rate hike could weigh on the index, particularly in the short term. The DAX is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 45 in weak territory. The MACD line is below the signal line and trending negative, confirming downward momentum. While the news may deepen the current technical weakness, the decline is expected to be controlled given the limited magnitude of the rate hike.

RSI 14

45.1

MACD

-57.51

24h Δ

-0.33%

📊 CAC — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

Expectations of an ECB rate hike could be a positive signal for the CAC index in the short term. Technical indicators also support this view: the RSI is at 55, in neutral territory, the MACD is above its signal line, and the price is above the 20- and 50-day moving averages. However, it should be noted that the rate hike may already be fully priced in by the market, potentially limiting upside movement. Therefore, the bullish outlook can be expressed with moderate confidence.

RSI 14

55.2

MACD

3.75

24h Δ

1.15%

📊 FTSE — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

Expectations of an ECB rate hike could create short-term pressure on the FTSE index. Technical indicators already present a weak outlook, with the RSI near oversold territory at 32, the MACD below its signal line, and the price trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 0.65% decline over the past 24 hours indicates continued selling pressure. However, the RSI approaching oversold levels also raises the possibility of a short-term bounce. Therefore, the downside expectation can be expressed with moderate confidence.

RSI 14

32.6

MACD

-28.85

24h Δ

-0.65%

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