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61/100 Bearish 05.06.2026 · 17:58 Finrend AI ⏱ 1 dk 👁 6 TR

Fitch: Reopening of Strait of Hormuz Will Create Oil Market Surplus

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a logistical supply shock in the oil market. The agency predicts that if the strait reopens, the market will quickly return to a surplus. According to Fitch's analysis, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to serious disruptions in the global oil supply chain, causing a temporary rise in oil prices and supply shortages. However, with the reopening of the strait, normal flow is expected to resume and inventories to be drawn down. The agency indicated that reopening the strait would create an oil market surplus, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. Fitch added that this situation could particularly affect the production policies of OPEC+ countries. Fitch Ratings' assessment once again highlights the impact of geopolitical risks on the oil market. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is underscored by the fact that approximately 20% of global oil trade passes through it. This is not investment advice.

📊 BRENT — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 70%

The news indicates that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will increase oil supply, which could put pressure on prices. Technical indicators also give bearish signals: although the RSI is in oversold territory at 21.78, the MACD is below zero and below its signal line. The price is trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages and has lost 1.86% in the last 24 hours. In the short term, the downtrend may continue due to expectations of excess supply and weak technical structure. However, the RSI being in oversold territory could signal a possible corrective buying, so the pace of the decline may be limited.

RSI 14
21.8
MACD
-0.64
24h Δ
-1.86%

📊 BP — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

Fitch's assessment that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could create an oil supply surplus presents a negative catalyst for BP shares in the short term. Technically, the stock is trading below its 20-day moving average ($43.75), with the RSI at 45.7 in weak territory. The MACD line remains below the signal line, confirming downward momentum. However, the 50-day moving average ($42.92) stands as a nearby support level, which may limit the decline. Therefore, while a downward move is expected in the short term, the magnitude of the drop may be limited.

RSI 14
45.7
MACD
0.10
24h Δ
-0.23%

📊 CVX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news could create expectations of increased oil supply, putting pressure on energy stocks such as CVX. Technically, the price closed below the 20-day moving average (189.14), and the RSI at 48.5 indicates a weak trend in neutral territory. The MACD remains below the signal line, suggesting weak short-term momentum. However, the 50-day moving average (186.36) may act as a nearby support level, so the downside could be limited.

RSI 14
48.5
MACD
0.16
24h Δ
-0.12%

📊 XOM — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

The news could create expectations of increased oil supply, putting pressure on energy stocks. XOM is trading below its 20-day moving average, with an RSI of 45 indicating weak territory. The MACD remains below the signal line, suggesting negative short-term momentum. With technical indicators and the news aligning, the stock is likely to continue its downward trend in the coming days.

RSI 14
45.6
MACD
0.07
24h Δ
0.21%
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