Algebris Exits Turkish Bonds, Takes Risk Position via CDS

Algebris Investments has abandoned its optimistic stance on Turkish markets and started taking credit default swap (CDS) positions. The firm assesses that geopolitical risks stemming from Iran are increasing pressure on the economy. Algebris argues that rising energy prices, a widening current account deficit, and low foreign exchange reserves are heightening Turkey's vulnerability, posing risks to Turkish bonds. The firm had previously maintained a bullish outlook on Turkish markets but has now shifted its strategy to take hedging positions. This is not investment advice.

📊 VIX — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 70%

The sharp 30% rise in the VIX and the RSI reaching 82 indicate increasing fear and uncertainty in the market. Algebris's exit from Turkish bonds and its move to take risk positions via CDS may heighten concerns about emerging markets. This could keep the VIX elevated in the short term. However, being in overbought territory also brings the possibility of some pullback. Still, the current momentum and news flow suggest that upward pressure may persist.

RSI 14

82.3

MACD

1.05

24h Δ

30.65%

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

Algebris's exit from Turkish bonds and its move to take a risk position via CDS indicates a loss of confidence in TL-denominated assets in the market. This could increase upward pressure on USDTRY. Technically, the RSI is at 46, in neutral territory, while the MACD is below the signal line and the price is trading below the SMA20. In the short term, if the level of 46.05 cannot be sustained, resistance levels of 46.10-46.15 may be tested. However, if selling pressure persists due to the news, the support at 46.00 could be broken.

RSI 14

46.1

MACD

0.01

24h Δ

-0.03%

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