Iran-US Tensions Escalate into Hot Conflict: Retaliatory Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz

News of a hot conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious risk to oil supply and could push Brent prices higher in the short term. However, technical indicators are weak: the RSI at 38 is near oversold territory, the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the MACD is in negative territory. Therefore, any rally is likely to be limited and may not immediately reverse the current downtrend. A short-term spike may occur due to the news, but technical resistance and weak momentum could cap the move.

News of a hot conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious risk to oil supply and could push prices higher in the short term. However, technical indicators are weak: the RSI at 38 is near oversold territory, the MACD is below zero, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Therefore, while there is upside potential, low momentum and a 2% decline in the last 24 hours suggest any move may be limited. A short-term bounce can be expected as geopolitical risks are priced in, but due to technical resistance and a weak structure, a sustained rally appears unlikely.

The escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious risk to oil supply, potentially impacting energy companies such as Exxon Mobil. Technical indicators already show a weak outlook, with the RSI approaching the sell zone at 41, while the MACD is below the signal line and in negative territory. The stock is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages and has lost 2.5% in the last 24 hours. Rising geopolitical uncertainties could further increase selling pressure in the short term.

The escalation of Iran-US tensions into open conflict and retaliatory attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could increase risks to oil supply, positively impacting energy stocks. Although CVX shares fell 1.4% in the last close, the RSI at 44.4 has not yet approached oversold territory, and technical indicators show weak momentum. The MACD line is below the signal line and in negative territory, suggesting limited upside potential in the short term. However, rising geopolitical risks could push oil prices higher, providing short-term support for energy companies like CVX. Therefore, the probability of an upward move is considered moderate.