Bets on Fed Rate Hike in 2026 Persist

Despite softer-than-expected US core inflation data, bond market investors are maintaining their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by the end of the year. While this has somewhat eased the pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to act immediately, market participants continue to price in a potential rate hike in 2026. Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist at Aberdeen, provided assessments on the Fed's likely policy path and potential moves by other central banks. Kochugovindan emphasized that inflation data plays a critical role in shaping the Fed's decisions. In an environment of ongoing uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate policy, investors continue to take positions in the bond market. Although the soft inflation data has slightly tempered expectations for a near-term rate hike, long-term rate hike bets remain strong. This is not investment advice.

📊 SPX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 70%

The SPX fell 2.5% in 24 hours to 7,315, closing below both its 20-day (7,384) and 50-day (7,498) moving averages. The RSI at 34.3 is approaching oversold territory but has not yet signaled a recovery; the MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, confirming weak momentum. Expectations of Fed rate hikes could amplify selling pressure by fueling growth concerns. In the short term, a break below the 7,300 support level could accelerate the decline, though oversold conditions may lead to some consolidation.

RSI 14

34.3

MACD

-45.47

24h Δ

-2.53%

📊 NDX — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 70%

NDX fell 3.6% in the last 24 hours to 28,686. While the RSI at 34.6 is approaching oversold territory, the MACD remains below the signal line and in negative territory. The price is trading below the 20-day (29,134) and 50-day (29,899) moving averages, indicating short-term weakness. Expectations of Fed rate hikes continue to pressure technology stocks. The downtrend is likely to persist in the near term, though some buying on dips may occur due to oversold conditions.

RSI 14

34.6

MACD

-301.59

24h Δ

-3.64%

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