CBRT Market Participants Survey: Inflation Expectation Rises, Dollar Forecast Falls

USDTRY is trading at 46.26, maintaining its short-term upward trend. The RSI at 61.5 is not yet in overbought territory, while the MACD remains positive above its signal line. In the news, the rise in inflation expectations from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) survey stands out as a factor that could lead to depreciation of the Turkish lira. However, a decline in the dollar forecast may limit the upside movement. Combining technical indicators and news, a limited short-term rise can be expected.

The news indicates that the rise in inflation expectations is a negative signal, while the decline in the dollar forecast reflects expectations of lira appreciation. On technical indicators, the RSI is at 55, in neutral territory, and the MACD is below zero but has crossed above its signal line. This makes it difficult to determine a clear direction in the short term. The market appears to be showing a tendency to stabilize at current levels.

The DXY is trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term weakness. Although the RSI is neutral at 49, the MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, suggesting downward momentum. News headlines pointing to rising inflation expectations in Turkey and a lower dollar forecast could reduce dollar demand in emerging markets. The last close at 99.86 was below the SMA20 (99.88) and SMA50 (99.93), implying that selling pressure may continue. In the short term, a downward move in the DXY is likely, though the pace of decline may remain limited.