Goldman: Hormuz Oil Flow May Only Reach 70% After Conflict

The report indicates that Goldman Sachs forecasts oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz may only reach 70% after the conflict. This could keep supply concerns alive in energy markets and may have a limited short-term impact on the stock due to GS's exposure to the energy sector. Technically, the RSI is neutral at 57.9, while the MACD is slightly below the signal line, suggesting weakening momentum. The stock is trading just above the 20-day SMA but has managed to stay above the 50-day SMA. Despite a 3% rise in the last 24 hours, the uncertainty of the news and mixed signals from technical indicators make it difficult to determine a clear direction.

The news increases supply constraint concerns by stating that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz may only reach 70% after the war. Brent crude's recent 5.6% decline and RSI dropping to 24 indicate oversold territory. Although the MACD is in negative territory, its approach toward the signal line suggests a potential weakening of momentum. There is potential for a short-term technical recovery, but trading below the SMA20 and SMA50 may limit upside.

Although WTI crude oil has entered oversold territory with the RSI dropping to 24, Goldman Sachs' report that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz may only reach 70% of pre-war levels could exacerbate supply concerns and weigh on prices. The MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, confirming weak short-term momentum. The sharp 7.5% decline over the past 24 hours indicates that the market is beginning to price in geopolitical risks. Trading below the SMA20 and SMA50 suggests a weak technical outlook and the potential for a continued downtrend. However, oversold conditions could trigger short-term bargain buying, so while my bearish expectation is high, it is not definitive.

The news indicates that normalizing oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz after the war will be challenging. This situation increases uncertainty regarding oil supply, potentially putting pressure on XOM stock. Technical indicators also point to weakness: RSI at 34 is near oversold territory, MACD is below zero and below its signal line. The price is trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The short-term downtrend is expected to continue.