US‑Iran Agreement Enters into Force, Focus Shifts to Hormuz

The implementation of the US-Iran agreement could affect oil prices. BP's stock may move in line with oil prices. With an RSI14 value below 20, it is in oversold territory and could see some recovery. However, the impact of the news may be short-term, and the market may have already priced in this development.

The news headline indicates that the implementation of the US-Iran agreement has reduced geopolitical risks, shifting market attention to the Strait of Hormuz. This could alleviate supply disruption concerns and exert downward pressure on oil prices. Technical indicators support this view: the RSI at 32.5 is near oversold territory but has not yet signaled a recovery, while the MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory. The price is trading below both the 20-day (79.03) and 50-day (79.71) moving averages, indicating short-term weakness. The 1.73% decline in the last 24 hours suggests continued selling pressure. However, the RSI approaching oversold levels also raises the possibility of a short-term corrective rally, so the downside expectation is high but not certain.

The news indicates that geopolitical risks have diminished with the implementation of the US-Iran agreement, shifting market attention to the Strait of Hormuz. This development alleviates supply disruption concerns, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Technically, while WTI's RSI at 30.8 approaches oversold territory, the price remaining below SMA20 and SMA50, along with MACD staying negative below the signal line, supports a short-term bearish trend. The 2% decline over the past 24 hours reinforces this view. However, as oversold conditions may signal a potential corrective bounce, the bearish expectation is expressed with high but limited confidence.

The DXY is trading at 100.28, up 0.74% in the last 24 hours. While the RSI at 68.4 approaches overbought territory, the MACD remains above its signal line and in positive territory, indicating sustained short-term bullish momentum. The price is trading above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting a technically strong stance. News headlines highlight that the US-Iran agreement has taken effect, reducing geopolitical risks and shifting focus to the Strait of Hormuz. This could provide limited support for the DXY in the near term, but the RSI nearing overbought levels may cap the pace of the rally.