Fed Keeps Long-Term Expectations Unchanged

USDJPY is in overbought territory with an RSI of 71.78, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. The Fed's unchanged long-term expectations confirm the continuation of the current policy stance, which could support the dollar, though this news may already be priced in. While the MACD line remains above the signal line, overbought conditions and limited upside in the last 24 hours suggest weakening upward momentum. The price staying above the 20- and 50-day moving averages indicates an overall uptrend, but a short-term pullback is expected. Therefore, a slightly bearish move is anticipated in the near term.

The USDTRY pair may follow a sideways trajectory in the short term. Although the RSI at 74 indicates overbought territory, the MACD remains below its signal line, signaling weakening momentum. The Fed's unchanged long-term outlook has not provided a clear directional cue for the dollar. Technically, the close at 46.44, while above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, suggests that upside movement may remain limited. Therefore, determining a clear direction in the short term becomes challenging.

The DXY is trading above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI at 66 in bullish territory. The MACD line is hovering near the signal line but remains in positive territory, indicating that short-term momentum is preserved. The Fed's decision to keep its long-term outlook unchanged reinforces the perception of a continued policy stance, which could provide support for the DXY. However, the RSI approaching overbought levels and the MACD's failure to cross above the signal line suggest that the upside may be limited. In the short term, the upward movement is expected to continue, but the 101 level should be monitored as a resistance.

The Fed's decision to keep its long-term expectations unchanged can be seen as a factor reducing uncertainty in the market. However, the recent decline in the SPX and the RSI remaining below 50 indicate weak momentum in the short term. The MACD continues to stay below the signal line, suggesting limited upward momentum. The price being below the 20-day moving average weighs on the short-term outlook. Therefore, no significant directional change is expected due to the news.