Capital Economics: Impact of the Energy Shock on Turkey's Economy

Capital Economics has noted that Turkey’s growth rate has begun to decline in the current period, while inflation shows a slowing trend. Senior economist Liam Peach projected year‑end inflation at 30%, suggesting that this decline could give the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) room to cut rates in the coming months. Peach also warned that the deterioration of the Hürmüz Agreement and a higher‑than‑expected rise in energy prices could further expose Turkey’s already fragile economy. He emphasized that volatility in energy prices can amplify inflationary pressure, particularly in an import‑heavy economy. The analyst argued that the energy shock could negatively affect consumer spending and investment decisions in the short term, and could destabilise macroeconomic equilibrium over the long term. In this context, policymakers should take measures to stabilise energy prices and accelerate structural reforms. In conclusion, Capital Economics cautions that a potential rise in Turkey’s energy prices could exert significant pressure on inflation and growth. Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios in light of these risks. This is not investment advice.

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The negative impact of the energy shock on the Turkish economy may put pressure on the Turkish Lira. The RSI and MACD indicators are currently almost neutral, but there is a slight downward pressure in the short term since the MACD signal is below. Nevertheless, the negative aspect of the news may lead to an increase in USDTRY. An increase of 0.2-0.3 points can be expected within 1-3 days.

RSI 14

59.9

MACD

0.01

24h Δ

0.00%

📊 EURTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The downtrend observed in the EURTRY pair over the last 24 hours may continue, supported by the RSI14 indicator at 51.75 and the MACD in negative territory. The potential negative impact of the energy shock on the Turkish economy, as highlighted in the news headline, could further reinforce this downtrend. However, given that the SMA20 and SMA50 indicators are at relatively close levels, an excessive decline is not expected.

RSI 14

51.7

MACD

-0.02

24h Δ

-0.11%

📊 ENERY — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news headline points to the negative impact of the energy shock on the Turkish economy. This could put pressure on energy sector stocks. Technical indicators also confirm weakness: RSI at 46 is below the neutral zone, MACD is below the signal line and negative. The price is trading below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The downtrend is expected to continue in the short term.

RSI 14

45.9

MACD

-0.02

24h Δ

-0.21%

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Capital Economics: Impact of the Energy Shock on Turkey's Economy

📊 USDTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 EURTRY — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 ENERY — Piyasa Yorumu

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