Trump's Rate Cut Expectations Dashed: Kevin Warsh Takes Hawkish Stance

The DXY has entered overbought territory with an RSI of 71, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. The MACD has just crossed below its signal line, indicating weakening momentum. While news that Trump's interest rate cut expectations have been dashed and Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance support the dollar, the overbought signals in technical indicators raise questions about the sustainability of the rally. In the short term, upside movement is expected to remain limited, and a slight pullback may occur.

USDTRY is trading flat at 46.44, with the RSI at 46.5 in neutral territory. The MACD remains below its signal line, indicating weak short-term momentum. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are very close to each other, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the market. News indicates that expectations for a rate cut by Trump have been dashed, and Kevin Warsh has adopted a hawkish stance. This development could put pressure on emerging market currencies, but the current technical structure of USDTRY does not yet signal a clear decline. In the short term, it is likely to remain within a horizontal band.

The news may have a negative impact on the market due to dashed rate cut expectations and a hawkish stance. Although the RSI at 60.6 indicates a neutral zone, the MACD above its signal line suggests a short-term upward trend. However, the 0.4% decline in the last 24 hours and the uncertainty created by the news could limit upside movement. While being above SMA20 and SMA50 supports the medium-term trend, selling pressure may emerge in the short term. Therefore, a downward movement is expected in the near term.