Iran War Shakes Aluminum Market, China and Middle East Supply Balances Prices

The war in Iran has caused one of the largest supply shocks in the history of the aluminum market. However, the uncontrolled price surge many investors expected has been limited thanks to creative solutions from producers in the Middle East and China. Although aluminum prices spiked at the onset of the war, this increase proved temporary. Market analysts note that despite the supply disruptions caused by the war, prices have stabilized due to China's rising production capacity and Middle Eastern refineries finding alternative routes. In particular, China's release of aluminum stocks into the market and Middle Eastern producers overcoming logistical hurdles have effectively closed the supply gap. While aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton in the early days of the war, they have since fallen to around $2,500 per ton in recent weeks. This decline was driven by sales from China's state reserves and increased shipments from the Middle East. Experts emphasize that the market's capacity to absorb the war's effects has been higher than expected. Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy costs keep alive concerns that aluminum prices could rise again in the coming period. Investors continue to closely monitor the long-term impacts of the war and potential disruptions in the global supply chain. This is not investment advice.

📊 ALUMINUM — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The news headline indicates that geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict) threaten aluminum supply, but supply from China and the Middle East plays a balancing role. This could create upward pressure on prices in the short term. Technical indicators present a neutral picture: RSI at 48.9 is neither overbought nor oversold, and while the MACD line is above the signal line, there is weak positive momentum. The price is trading just below the 20- and 50-day moving averages (3409 and 3406), suggesting proximity to resistance levels. The 0.23% decline in the last 24 hours suggests that the news has not yet been fully priced in. Overall, the upward potential from geopolitical risks supports a slight bullish expectation despite the neutrality of the technical picture.

RSI 14

48.9

MACD

4.38

24h Δ

-0.23%

📊 AA — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 70%

The news indicates that despite the Iran conflict disrupting the aluminum market, supply from China and the Middle East could help stabilize prices. While this alleviates short-term supply concerns, uncertainty persists. Technical indicators show the stock has fallen 6.6% in the last 24 hours, with the RSI at 27.3 in oversold territory and the MACD trending negatively below its signal line. Trading below both the SMA20 and SMA50, the stock may maintain a short-term bearish trend. Although the oversold zone suggests a potential rebound, weak momentum means the bearish outlook prevails.

RSI 14

27.3

MACD

-1.69

24h Δ

-6.59%

📊 AAL — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

The news headline indicates that the war in Iran is affecting the aluminum market, but it is not specific enough to have a direct impact on Alcoa (AAL) stock. Technical indicators show the RSI at 60.6, in neutral territory, and the MACD remains below its signal line, offering no clear short-term directional signal. The price is above the 20-day moving average (15.87) and higher than the 50-day average (15.05), suggesting a medium-term bullish trend. Despite a 2.93% increase in the last 24 hours, a sideways movement is expected in the short term due to the uncertainty of the news and mixed signals from technical indicators.

RSI 14

60.6

MACD

0.22

24h Δ

2.93%

Canlı Grafikler

AI tarafından yeniden derlenmiştir. Yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.

Iran War Shakes Aluminum Market, China and Middle East Supply Balances Prices

📊 ALUMINUM — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 AA — Piyasa Yorumu

📊 AAL — Piyasa Yorumu

🔗 İlgili haberler

🧬 Buna benzer