JPMorgan Official Sees Federal Reserve Raising Rates 'Once or Twice' After Year-End

Bob Michele, Global Fixed Income Head at JPMorgan Asset Management, highlighted the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise rates one or two times next year. He noted that these hikes would occur in a more controlled manner rather than as part of a "dramatic hiking cycle." Michele cited a slowing inflation trend, stability in the labor market, and a deceleration in economic growth as key factors underpinning this outlook. He explained that these dynamics increase the probability of the Fed incrementally raising rates. For fixed‑income markets, the scenario could lead to a modest rise in bond yields and a slight shift in demand for riskier asset classes. Investors may wish to reassess their portfolios in light of these potential rate changes. Michele’s remarks signal a more measured Fed approach to policy, though market conditions and unforeseen developments could alter this projection. This is not investment advice.

📊 JPM — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 60%

The news raises the possibility of a Fed rate hike, sending a negative signal for the banking sector. Technical indicators also point to weakness: RSI at 42.8 is below the neutral zone, MACD is below the signal line, and the price is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The latest close was down 1.1%, indicating continued selling pressure. A short-term downtrend is expected to persist, but since the market has not entered oversold territory, the pace of decline may remain limited.

RSI 14

42.8

MACD

-0.82

24h Δ

-1.14%

📊 DXY — Piyasa Yorumu

▲ up · 60%

The news suggests that the Fed's rate hike cycle may continue, which could support the DXY. Technical indicators confirm a slight bullish trend: RSI is at 53 in neutral territory, MACD is above the signal line, and the price is above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, the price's proximity to these averages and the RSI not being in overbought territory indicate that the upside may be limited. A short-term upward movement can be expected, but a strong breakout may require additional catalysts.

RSI 14

53.2

MACD

0.03

24h Δ

0.17%

📊 BAC — Piyasa Yorumu

■ neutral · 60%

The news is sending mixed signals for the banking sector by increasing expectations of an interest rate hike. BAC stock is trading just below its 20-day moving average (58.10), with the RSI at 48, indicating a neutral zone. The MACD remains below the signal line, suggesting short-term weakness. However, the price is holding above the 50-day moving average (57.65) and has shown a slight positive trend over the last 24 hours. Therefore, further catalysts should be awaited to determine a clear direction.

RSI 14

48.4

MACD

0.09

24h Δ

0.26%

📊 GS — Piyasa Yorumu

▼ down · 65%

GS shares fell 5.6% in the last close, with the RSI entering oversold territory at 29.4. MACD values remain negative and below the signal line. A JPMorgan official's expectation of 'one or two' rate hikes by the Fed after year-end could keep rate hike expectations alive, potentially pressuring growth stocks. In the short term, technical indicators are weak, but the oversold region also raises the possibility of a rebound. Therefore, the downtrend may continue, but a limited negative trajectory rather than a sharp decline can be expected.

RSI 14

29.4

MACD

-16.33

24h Δ

-5.62%

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