Fed Expectations Decline After June Jobs Report Misses Forecasts

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 100.80, down 0.52% over the past 24 hours. While the RSI at 37.97 approaches oversold territory, the MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supporting a technically bearish outlook. Headlines point to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which typically pressures the DXY. However, the low RSI level increases the possibility of a short-term corrective bounce, limiting confidence in the bearish view to moderate.

The news headline indicates that expectations for a Fed rate cut are weakening. This could strengthen the USD and lead to an upward move in USDJPY. However, technical indicators present a neutral outlook: RSI is below 50, MACD is below zero, and the price is between the SMA20 and SMA50. Therefore, a limited upside is possible in the short term, but there is no strong trend signal.

NDX fell 1.32% in the last close, with its RSI at 37.35, approaching oversold territory. The MACD line is below the signal line and in negative territory, indicating weak short-term momentum. The price is trading below the 20-day SMA (29,822) and retreating toward the 50-day SMA (29,573). News headlines indicate that Fed expectations have declined following weaker-than-expected unemployment data, which could heighten economic slowdown concerns and negatively impact risk appetite. In the short term, the downtrend is likely to continue, although the RSI nearing oversold levels may trigger some buying on dips.

The news points to a decline in expectations for the Fed, which could reduce risk appetite and put pressure on equities. AAPL's RSI is at 78.6, indicating overbought territory and increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. The 9.4% rise over the past 24 hours may set the stage for profit-taking. While the MACD remains bullish, overbought conditions and negative macro news suggest momentum could weaken. Therefore, a downward move is expected in the short term.